{"id":107,"date":"2019-12-20T01:43:46","date_gmt":"2019-12-20T01:43:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/market-wisdom.com\/?p=107"},"modified":"2020-09-25T23:22:55","modified_gmt":"2020-09-25T23:22:55","slug":"household-spending-on-transportation-does-your-car-cost-the-same-as-in-1997","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/market-wisdom.com\/index.php\/2019\/12\/20\/household-spending-on-transportation-does-your-car-cost-the-same-as-in-1997\/","title":{"rendered":"Household spending on transportation:  the same today as in 1997?!"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"840\" height=\"523\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/market-wisdom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/installment-3572185_1920.jpg?resize=840%2C523&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Image of a car on top of money, representing household spending on transportation.\" class=\"wp-image-110\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/market-wisdom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/installment-3572185_1920.jpg?resize=1024%2C638&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/market-wisdom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/installment-3572185_1920.jpg?resize=300%2C187&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/market-wisdom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/installment-3572185_1920.jpg?resize=768%2C478&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/market-wisdom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/installment-3572185_1920.jpg?resize=1536%2C957&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/market-wisdom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/installment-3572185_1920.jpg?resize=1200%2C748&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/market-wisdom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/installment-3572185_1920.jpg?w=1920&amp;ssl=1 1920w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/market-wisdom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/installment-3572185_1920.jpg?w=1680&amp;ssl=1 1680w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 1362px) 62vw, 840px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Background<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We saw in a <a href=\"https:\/\/market-wisdom.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/10\/how-americans-spend-chasing-the-american-dream\/\">previous post<\/a> that the second largest expenditure for American households is household spending on transportation.&nbsp;&nbsp;This averages a bit over $9,500 a year, or 16% of the typical household\u2019s budget.&nbsp;&nbsp;What are the components of this cost, and how is it changing over time?&nbsp;&nbsp;Are we really a world of Teslas and BMWs?  Or, is that a perception based on those who live in the San Francisco Bay Area?&nbsp;&nbsp;This post will look at how we spend on transportation, and how it\u2019s changed over time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Findings<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/market-wisdom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/Transportation.pdf\" alt=\"Graph showing 1997 vs. 2017 household spending on transportation, flat after adjusting for inflation.\" class=\"wp-image-108\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>We are actually spending less on transportation today than 20 years ago.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/strong>After adjusting for inflation, the average US household actually spent slightly&nbsp;<em>less<\/em>&nbsp;on transportation in 2017 than in 1997 (though households are also slightly smaller now).<\/li><li><strong>It\u2019s all about the cars.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/strong>Less than 1\/10 of the household spending on transportation expense is for public transit.  Almost all the spending is for the cars we drive.&nbsp;&nbsp;The average US household owns two cars.<\/li><li><strong>New cars actually aren\u2019t getting much more expensive<\/strong>!&nbsp;&nbsp;There are various analyses and challenges with how to interpret them.  The the bottom line is that inflation is the main driver of the cost perception.&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/apps.bea.gov\/scb\/pdf\/national\/niparel\/1997\/1197mv.pdf\">In 1997 the average new car cost $20,305<\/a>; inflation adjusted to 2017 this is equivalent to $30,010 \u2013 nearly a 50% increase.&nbsp;&nbsp;Kelley Blue Book reported the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.prnewswire.com\/news-releases\/average-new-car-prices-set-record-high-up-nearly-2-percent-in-december-2017-according-to-kelley-blue-book-300576732.html\">average 2017 new car price<\/a>&nbsp;as $36,000.<\/li><li><strong>Buy or hold makes a big difference<\/strong>:&nbsp;&nbsp;The average age of a car or light truck on the road is&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bts.gov\/sites\/bts.dot.gov\/files\/docs\/browse-statistical-products-and-data\/national-transportation-statistics\/223001\/ntsentire2018q4.pdf\">over 11 years<\/a>.&nbsp;&nbsp;If you are driving an older car, with no loan to pay off, you\u2019re avoiding finance charges, and possibly depreciation from a big purchase.&nbsp;&nbsp;On the other hand, a new car today will on average cost you&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/newsroom.aaa.com\/auto\/your-driving-costs\/\">over $9,000\/year<\/a>, including over $3,000 in depreciation.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;So, yes, if you buy a new BMW it will cost you a lot more than the household average.  But if you\u2019re an average American, you\u2019re getting a much cheaper transportation deal.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Implications<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In one sense, the implication is the hackneyed, long repeated one.   It\u2019s cheaper to keep your old car, than to buy a new one.&nbsp;&nbsp;But two concerning trends are making this better advice than ever.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One trend is the move to longer term auto loans.&nbsp;&nbsp;It used to be that you\u2019d take out a 36-month (3 year) loan.&nbsp;&nbsp;However, now the salespeople sell you on a lower payment with a longer duration loan so that you can \u201cafford\u201d a nicer new car.&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.experian.com\/content\/dam\/marketing\/na\/automotive\/quarterly-webinars\/credit-trends\/experian-auto-q2-2019-safm.pdf\">Experian\u2019s analysis<\/a>&nbsp;indicates that the&nbsp;<em>average<\/em>&nbsp;new car loan period is now 69 months \u2013 almost six years. Consider the case of a prime borrower purchasing a $30,000 car with 20% down and a loan of $24,000 at 4.5%.&nbsp;&nbsp;The monthly payment is $714 and the interest paid over the life of the loan is $1700.&nbsp;&nbsp;But if you bite on a fancy $50,000 car, and put down 20%, a 6-year loan will result in a monthly payment of only $634 \u2013&nbsp;<em>less<\/em>&nbsp;than the cheaper car.&nbsp;&nbsp;But over the course of the loan you\u2019ll pay 3x as much interest plus the extra $20K for the car, and you\u2019re in for a lot more depreciation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The other issue is loan quality.&nbsp;&nbsp;Subprime auto loans have grown to almost 1\/5 of the number of loans.&nbsp;&nbsp;An excellent&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org\/2019\/02\/just-released-auto-loans-in-high-gear.html\">New York Fed analysis<\/a>&nbsp;shows that 8% of these are 90-day delinquent, and not surprisingly younger borrowers are the majority of these delinquencies.&nbsp;&nbsp;Across all borrowers, 7 million are 90-days delinquent, up a million from a year ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The bottom line is that if you\u2019re helping your clients manage their money (or managing your own!) you should think long and hard about following the ancient advice, and avoid being upsold to a car you can\u2019t really afford.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The small print<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I used an online&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.usinflationcalculator.com\/\">inflation rate calculator<\/a>.&nbsp;&nbsp;The main source for household transportation expenses was the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/cex\/csxashar.htm#2017\">Bureau of Labor Statistics<\/a>&nbsp;which conducts the consumer expense survey every year.&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/apps.bea.gov\/scb\/pdf\/national\/niparel\/1997\/1197mv.pdf\">Historical car prices<\/a>&nbsp;were from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The \u201ctwo cars per household\u201d number is based on the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bts.gov\/content\/number-us-aircraft-vehicles-vessels-and-other-conveyances\">US Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation statistics<\/a>.&nbsp;&nbsp;Unfortunately, their definition of subcategories of registered vehicles has changed over time.  Hence, it\u2019s not possible to compare long term other than total registered vehicles.&nbsp;&nbsp;By today\u2019s definition, out of 272MM registered vehicles in 2017, 13MM are larger trucks (probably commercial) and buses, so the vast majority of vehicles on the road are personal.&nbsp;&nbsp;For all these reasons, I\u2019ve used the total registered vehicle number to calculate vehicles per HH which in 2017 was 2.05.&nbsp;&nbsp;The US household numbers I use to calculate vehicles per HH come from the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/data\/tables\/time-series\/demo\/families\/households.html\">US Census<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Background We saw in a previous post that the second largest expenditure for American households is household spending on transportation.&nbsp;&nbsp;This averages a bit over $9,500 a year, or 16% of the typical household\u2019s budget.&nbsp;&nbsp;What are the components of this cost, and how is it changing over time?&nbsp;&nbsp;Are we really a world of Teslas and BMWs? &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/market-wisdom.com\/index.php\/2019\/12\/20\/household-spending-on-transportation-does-your-car-cost-the-same-as-in-1997\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Household spending on transportation:  the same today as in 1997?!&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-107","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-how-americans-spend","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Household spending on transportation: the same today as in 1997?!<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"While we think household spending on transportation and cars has gone way up, the 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