{"id":134,"date":"2020-03-09T20:00:50","date_gmt":"2020-03-09T20:00:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/market-wisdom.com\/?p=134"},"modified":"2020-09-25T23:23:55","modified_gmt":"2020-09-25T23:23:55","slug":"spending-into-oblivion-the-disturbing-trend-in-the-personal-savings-rate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/market-wisdom.com\/index.php\/2020\/03\/09\/spending-into-oblivion-the-disturbing-trend-in-the-personal-savings-rate\/","title":{"rendered":"The personal savings rate:  spending into oblivion?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"840\" height=\"473\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/market-wisdom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/no-money-2070384_1280.jpg?resize=840%2C473&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Millennial pulling empty pockets from his jeans, implying a very low personal savings rate\" class=\"wp-image-136\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/market-wisdom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/no-money-2070384_1280.jpg?resize=1024%2C576&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/market-wisdom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/no-money-2070384_1280.jpg?resize=300%2C169&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/market-wisdom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/no-money-2070384_1280.jpg?resize=768%2C432&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/market-wisdom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/no-money-2070384_1280.jpg?resize=1200%2C675&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/market-wisdom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/no-money-2070384_1280.jpg?w=1280&amp;ssl=1 1280w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 1362px) 62vw, 840px\" \/><figcaption>Image courtesy of <a href=\"https:\/\/pixabay.com\/illustrations\/no-money-poor-money-no-crisis-2070384\/\">Pixabay<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Background<\/span> <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In 1867 Horace Greeley, the famed journalist, observed of Americans: \u201cWe are energetic, we are audacious, we are confident in our own capacities and in our national destiny, but&nbsp;<em>we are not a systematic, a frugal, economical people<\/em>.\u201d  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"> How well he predicted where we are today:&nbsp;&nbsp;a culture that has embraced spending, and abandoned thrift.&nbsp;&nbsp;Perhaps the best long-term indicator of this malaise is the Bureau of Economic Analysis\u2019 calculation of the personal savings rate trend.  This is a statistic that is based on disposable personal income vs. expenditures.  Data is available back to the early 20<sup>th<\/sup>century.&nbsp;&nbsp;This gives us over a 100-year window into the trend in how much we save.&nbsp;&nbsp;Will that statistic bear out what Greeley perceived over 150 years ago?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Findings<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The answer, perhaps unsurprisingly, is yes.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/market-wisdom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/Savings-trend.pdf\" alt=\"Graph of the personal savings rate since 1927\" class=\"wp-image-135\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>The personal savings rate has fluctuated dramatically over the past century<\/strong>:&nbsp;&nbsp;Its lowest point was during the great depression when it was negative in 1932 and 1933.&nbsp;&nbsp;People had to dig into savings just to survive.&nbsp;&nbsp;It was dramatically positive \u2013 over 25% &#8212; during World War II, when the war economy meant everyone was working.  On the other hand,  you couldn\u2019t buy anything due to rationing!<\/li><li><strong>When boomers grew up, the savings rate dived:<\/strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;During the post-WWII prosperity, the savings rate gradually grew to 13%.&nbsp;&nbsp;But in 1975, after the majority of the Boomers turned 21, the savings rate began a consistent decline.&nbsp;&nbsp;Just before the recession of 2008, the rate was at only 3%.&nbsp;<\/li><li><strong>Some hope based on recent behavior:<\/strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;The savings rate did bump up after the recession, but not to historical levels.  It\u2019s still about half of what it was before Boomers entered the workforce.<\/li><li><strong>The BEA summary statistic hides an ugly truth:<\/strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;Here the devil is in the details of the statistic.&nbsp;&nbsp;Disposable personal income includes employer contributions to 401k plans and pensions, because the BEA sees this as a way Americans generate savings \u2013 fair enough.&nbsp;&nbsp;But the total amount of \u201cpersonal savings\u201d in 2019,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/apps.bea.gov\/iTable\/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=3&amp;isuri=1&amp;select_all_years=0&amp;nipa_table_list=58&amp;series=a&amp;first_year=2019&amp;last_year=2019&amp;scale=-9&amp;categories=survey&amp;thetable=\">$1.3 trillion<\/a>, is&nbsp;<em>less<\/em> than the employer contributions to retirement accounts of $1.5 trillion.&nbsp;&nbsp;That means that if we look at what Americans actually bring home in their paycheck, they spend it all \u2013 and&nbsp;<em>more<\/em>.<\/li><li><strong>Many Americans admit to not saving anything:&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/strong>Many studies have highlighted that many families can\u2019t or don\u2019t save.&nbsp;&nbsp;A&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/content.schwab.com\/web\/retail\/public\/about-schwab\/Charles-Schwab-2019-Modern-Wealth-Survey-findings-0519-9JBP.pdf\">Charles Schwab study<\/a>&nbsp;found that 59% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Implications<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The obvious overarching implication for our country is the one that we\u2019ve been hearing. A lot of families will be in trouble not just in retirement, but also if they have a significant event \u2013 e.g. a job loss or an extraordinary expense.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But the big challenge is that this is old news about a stagnant problem!&nbsp;&nbsp;The news media, and financial websites, are rife with a simplistic answer:&nbsp;&nbsp;save more money.&nbsp;&nbsp;This message has been out there for 20 years, but hasn\u2019t worked. We need to drill down deeper in subsequent posts to better understand how to address this trend:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>What has changed that drove down savings?<\/li><li>How does this differ by generation?<\/li><li>Why are Americans behaviorally averse to savings?<\/li><li>And most importantly, how can we help people change their behavior to achieve better outcomes?<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">The small print<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/apps.bea.gov\/iTable\/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=3&amp;isuri=1&amp;select_all_years=0&amp;nipa_table_list=58&amp;series=a&amp;first_year=2019&amp;last_year=2019&amp;scale=-9&amp;categories=survey&amp;thetable=\">BEA data<\/a>, including the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/PSAVERT\">long-term trend<\/a>, is central to this analysis.&nbsp;&nbsp;Because the currently available data tables go back only to 1959, the data for earlier in the century is from a previous analysis I did on this topic but I can no longer link back to BEA data as it is no longer available.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The BEA&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bea.gov\/help\/faq\/512\">revises their calculation<\/a>&nbsp;at times, and the most recent revisions\u2019 biggest change was making employer pension contributions accrual vs. cash based.&nbsp;&nbsp;What this really means is that the \u201cincome\u201d employers contribute is based on what they should have put in given likely pension benefits, not what they actually put in.&nbsp;&nbsp;So if employers (including the government) aren\u2019t contributing enough, the BEA still includes what they&nbsp;<em>should<\/em>&nbsp;have contributed in the personal income amount.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/market-wisdom.com\/index.php\/sign-up-for-cool-weekly-insights\/\">Sign up for the weekly insight email!<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Background In 1867 Horace Greeley, the famed journalist, observed of Americans: \u201cWe are energetic, we are audacious, we are confident in our own capacities and in our national destiny, but&nbsp;we are not a systematic, a frugal, economical people.\u201d How well he predicted where we are today:&nbsp;&nbsp;a culture that has embraced spending, and abandoned thrift.&nbsp;&nbsp;Perhaps the &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/market-wisdom.com\/index.php\/2020\/03\/09\/spending-into-oblivion-the-disturbing-trend-in-the-personal-savings-rate\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;The personal savings rate:  spending into oblivion?&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-134","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-saving-and-retirement","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The personal savings rate: spending into oblivion? 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