{"id":228,"date":"2020-04-24T00:33:54","date_gmt":"2020-04-24T00:33:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/market-wisdom.com\/?p=228"},"modified":"2020-09-25T23:23:54","modified_gmt":"2020-09-25T23:23:54","slug":"why-cant-americans-save-the-compression-of-the-savings-years","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/market-wisdom.com\/index.php\/2020\/04\/24\/why-cant-americans-save-the-compression-of-the-savings-years\/","title":{"rendered":"Why can&#8217;t Americans save?  The compression of the savings years"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"840\" height=\"560\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/market-wisdom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/purse-522622_1920.jpg?resize=840%2C560&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-237\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/market-wisdom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/purse-522622_1920.jpg?resize=1024%2C683&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/market-wisdom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/purse-522622_1920.jpg?resize=300%2C200&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/market-wisdom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/purse-522622_1920.jpg?resize=768%2C512&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/market-wisdom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/purse-522622_1920.jpg?resize=1536%2C1024&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/market-wisdom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/purse-522622_1920.jpg?resize=1200%2C800&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/market-wisdom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/purse-522622_1920.jpg?w=1920&amp;ssl=1 1920w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/market-wisdom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/purse-522622_1920.jpg?w=1680&amp;ssl=1 1680w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 1362px) 62vw, 840px\" \/><figcaption>Image by\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/pixabay.com\/users\/stevepb-282134\/?utm_source=link-attribution&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_campaign=image&amp;utm_content=522622\">Steve Buissinne<\/a>\u00a0from\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/pixabay.com\/?utm_source=link-attribution&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_campaign=image&amp;utm_content=522622\">Pixabay<\/a>\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Background<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Why can&#8217;t Americans save?  How much do our life delays affect our ability to succeed in retirement?\u00a0\u00a0Past posts show the changing demographics of the traditional American two-child family:\u00a0\u00a0Getting married later, waiting longer to have kids, but \u2013 retiring at the same age.\u00a0\u00a0When combined with people living longer, what does this mean for the average family\u2019s success in saving for retirement?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Married with children is the most common type of household in America, so we\u2019ll look at statistics for that family in 1970 vs. today.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Findings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/market-wisdom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/Savings-compression-chart.pdf\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-229\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>Families are starting much later in life:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>Compared to 1970, couples are getting married on average 7 years later, and having their first child 8 years later.\u00a0<\/li><li><strong>The children are launching not long before the parents retire:<\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0If the family has two children, the second one will graduate college when Mom is 54 years old.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0(See my\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/market-wisdom.com\/index.php\/2020\/04\/08\/marriage-and-birth-age-trends-postponing-life\/\">post<\/a>\u00a0on marriage and children).\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0This is 8 years later than the 1970 family.\u00a0\u00a0In this analysis I\u2019m ignoring the impact of boomerang children. They can keep costing their parents money even into the parents\u2019 retirement!<\/li><li><strong>The age of retirement hasn\u2019t changed<\/strong>:\u00a0\u00a0It\u2019s still\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/story\/why-the-average-retirement-age-is-rising-2017-10-09\">65 on average<\/a>, the same as in 1970.\u00a0\u00a0While it did drop a bit in the 80\u2019s and 90\u2019s, it\u2019s back up to 65.<\/li><li><strong>We\u2019re living longer<\/strong>.\u00a0\u00a0If you make it to age 65, on average you will live to 85, or 20 years in retirement.\u00a0\u00a0In 1970 the average time in retirement was only 15 years.<\/li><li><strong>The \u201cprime\u201d savings years are dramatically compressed<\/strong>.\u00a0\u00a0The point at which the kids move out on their own is also a time when the parents are at their earnings peak.\u00a0\u00a0If children are moving out 10 years later in their parents\u2019 lives, that means a lot less time for the parents to be saving money free of the encumbrance of paying for their children.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Implications<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The recent years haven\u2019t been setting us up for savings success.\u00a0\u00a0Having less time to save for a longer retirement is a troubling situation for an American family.\u00a0\u00a0Why can&#8217;t Americans save?  New families, starting later, saddled with student debt, and having a harder time launching (boomerang kids), means it\u2019s harder to save.\u00a0\u00a0Add onto this the kids being around (expensively) later in life, this means that by the time families can focus on saving money, it\u2019s almost time to retire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This issue points out the importance not only of more focused savings earlier in life, but also more carefully managing expenses on children and expenses in general.&nbsp;&nbsp;What are the tradeoffs and how have Americans done at this?&nbsp;&nbsp;Our next posts will suggest not well, and that we need to find new paths to help Americans succeed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The small print<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This analysis requires some simplifying assumptions.\u00a0\u00a0It\u2019s important to understand them \u2013 but none of them risk changing the conclusion in understanding why Americans can&#8217;t save.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Marriage age is the age of first marriage for women taken from the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/data\/tables\/time-series\/demo\/families\/marital.html\">US Census<\/a>.&nbsp;&nbsp;For men the age is about two years later.&nbsp;&nbsp;Women marry younger.&nbsp;&nbsp;I\u2019ve used the women\u2019s age because it can be compared to the time between first marriage and&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bgsu.edu\/content\/dam\/BGSU\/college-of-arts-and-sciences\/NCFMR\/documents\/FP\/FP-12-11.pdf\">first birth<\/a>, older CDC data&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/nchs\/data\/series\/sr_23\/sr23_006.pdf\">here<\/a>.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The data on when\/if children graduate college is messy.   I\u2019ve simplified by simply using the rough estimate from various sources that the second child arrives about 2 years after the first, and then adding 21 years to get to graduation date.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Retirement age is for men, from work by\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/story\/why-the-average-retirement-age-is-rising-2017-10-09\">Alicia Munnell<\/a>.\u00a0\u00a0That age did drop in the 80\u2019s and 90\u2019s.   (see Alicia\u2019s article for the various reasons) In recent years the age rebounded back to 65.\u00a0\u00a0I\u2019ve used the age for men because the data for women is hard to interpret.\u00a0\u00a0Because so many more women are in the workforce, and later, today than in 1970, the retirement age has gone up dramatically in that time.\u00a0\u00a0Because that\u2019s largely a function of more women working, the data doesn\u2019t represent real retirement trends.\u00a0\u00a0Hence I\u2019ve used men\u2019s retirement age.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Life expectancy here is how long you\u2019re expected to live if you reach 65.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Most data you see reported are life expectancy at birth.  This is lower than if you\u2019ve already been around 65 years!\u00a0\u00a0Americans&#8217; life expectancy after 65 is their retirement duration.\u00a0\u00a0Here, I\u2019ve taken an average of men and women, again for simplicity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/market-wisdom.com\/index.php\/sign-up-for-cool-weekly-insights\/\">Sign up for the weekly insight email!<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Background Why can&#8217;t Americans save? How much do our life delays affect our ability to succeed in retirement?\u00a0\u00a0Past posts show the changing demographics of the traditional American two-child family:\u00a0\u00a0Getting married later, waiting longer to have kids, but \u2013 retiring at the same age.\u00a0\u00a0When combined with people living longer, what does this mean for the average &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/market-wisdom.com\/index.php\/2020\/04\/24\/why-cant-americans-save-the-compression-of-the-savings-years\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Why can&#8217;t Americans save?  The compression of the savings years&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-228","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-saving-and-retirement","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Why can&#039;t Americans save? 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