{"id":247,"date":"2020-05-19T21:58:32","date_gmt":"2020-05-19T21:58:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/market-wisdom.com\/?p=247"},"modified":"2020-09-25T23:20:03","modified_gmt":"2020-09-25T23:20:03","slug":"covid-19-increased-personal-spending-quarantine-spending-jumps","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/market-wisdom.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/19\/covid-19-increased-personal-spending-quarantine-spending-jumps\/","title":{"rendered":"COVID-19 increased personal spending?   Quarantine spending jumps"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"840\" height=\"560\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/market-wisdom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/bottles-3623317_1920.jpg?resize=840%2C560&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"COVID-19 increases personal spending -- on alcohol and food\" class=\"wp-image-249\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/market-wisdom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/bottles-3623317_1920.jpg?resize=1024%2C683&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/market-wisdom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/bottles-3623317_1920.jpg?resize=300%2C200&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/market-wisdom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/bottles-3623317_1920.jpg?resize=768%2C512&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/market-wisdom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/bottles-3623317_1920.jpg?resize=1536%2C1024&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/market-wisdom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/bottles-3623317_1920.jpg?resize=1200%2C800&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/market-wisdom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/bottles-3623317_1920.jpg?w=1920&amp;ssl=1 1920w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/market-wisdom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/bottles-3623317_1920.jpg?w=1680&amp;ssl=1 1680w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 1362px) 62vw, 840px\" \/><figcaption>Courtesy of Pixabay\/&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/pixabay.com\/users\/MichaelGaida-652234\/?utm_source=link-attribution&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_campaign=image&amp;utm_content=3623317\">Ich bin dann mal raus hier.<\/a>&nbsp;<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Background<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Is it possible that COVID-19 increased personal spending?&nbsp;&nbsp;Not overall, but yes, in certain areas.&nbsp;&nbsp;We know from my&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/market-wisdom.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/01\/covid-19-drives-up-savings-wait-what\/\">previous post<\/a>&nbsp;that in March people spent 8% less overall, with the biggest hits being health care, entertainment, and eating out.&nbsp;&nbsp;But the same Bureau of Economics data shows where spending increased.&nbsp;&nbsp;March data is the most recent currently available.&nbsp;&nbsp;Until we get April data (end of May), this should show the early trends \u2013 or the tip of the iceberg.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Findings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/market-wisdom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Mar-2020-spending-increases.pdf\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-251\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>Eating is big:&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/strong>Spending on groceries (excluding alcohol) jumped 20%, $181 billion.&nbsp;&nbsp;Anyone who visited a supermarket in late March is aware of the rush of stocking up on foodstuffs.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/li><li><strong>Sin is in:<\/strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;Alcohol sales were up 17%, and tobacco sales were flat.&nbsp;&nbsp;In the first week after lockdowns started, ending 3\/21,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsweek.com\/us-alcohol-sales-increase-55-percent-one-week-amid-coronavirus-pandemic-1495510\">Nielsen<\/a>&nbsp;reports alcohol sales were up 55%.&nbsp;&nbsp;Many of us have experienced Zoom happy hours.<\/li><li><strong>Food and alcohol increase offsets eating out:<\/strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;The jump in food and alcohol spend of $205 billion is&nbsp;<em>almost exactly the same<\/em>&nbsp;as the decline in food service spend \u2013 restaurants and bars \u2013 of $207 billion.<\/li><li><strong>Housing spending was flat (so far):<\/strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;The cost of housing, including rental payments and utilities, was flat.&nbsp;&nbsp;Of course March rent and mortgage payments would have been paid before the lockdowns and layoffs started.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/li><li><strong>Drugs up &#8212; briefly?<\/strong>:&nbsp;&nbsp;Spending on prescription drugs increased in March, probably as concerned consumers stocked up on medications.  Early indications are that in April and May drug spending dropped, especially doctor-administered drugs (people stopped visiting medical facilities).<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Implications<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The March data shows the initial spending changes.&nbsp;&nbsp;And yes, in a couple select cases, we saw COVID-19 increased personal spending.&nbsp;&nbsp;But is it the tip of the iceberg? Or will we see more changes?&nbsp;&nbsp;While we don\u2019t have the April spend data yet, we know April unemployment numbers jumped dramatically and spending is probably dropping further.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Likely food and alcohol will hold up.&nbsp;&nbsp;Kroger, the largest US grocery chain,&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/ir.kroger.com\/file\/Index?KeyFile=404002333\">hired 100,000 people<\/a>&nbsp;in the eight weeks ending mid-May, a 22% increase.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;As long as people avoid restaurants, they\u2019ll be buying for home.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Most other categories are a big question mark.&nbsp;&nbsp;April data, pre-reopening, should look grim for categories like restaurants and entertainment.&nbsp;&nbsp;But reopening doesn\u2019t mean business income returns, or that people are willing to return to public spaces.&nbsp;&nbsp;A Seton Hall study showed that 61% of sports fans wouldn\u2019t return to live events until there is a COVID-19 vaccine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I\u2019ll be reviewing the April BEA data when it releases on May 29.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The small print<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The data is from the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis\u2019\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bea.gov\/news\/2020\/personal-income-and-outlays-march-2020\">Personal Income and Outlays report<\/a>.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0For housing, rentals are actuals but home owner payments are a calculation of the value of the home as a rental, not the actual mortgage payment.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/market-wisdom.com\/index.php\/sign-up-for-cool-weekly-insights\/\">Sign up for the weekly insight email!<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Background Is it possible that COVID-19 increased personal spending?&nbsp;&nbsp;Not overall, but yes, in certain areas.&nbsp;&nbsp;We know from my&nbsp;previous post&nbsp;that in March people spent 8% less overall, with the biggest hits being health care, entertainment, and eating out.&nbsp;&nbsp;But the same Bureau of Economics data shows where spending increased.&nbsp;&nbsp;March data is the most recent currently available.&nbsp;&nbsp;Until we &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/market-wisdom.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/19\/covid-19-increased-personal-spending-quarantine-spending-jumps\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;COVID-19 increased personal spending?   Quarantine spending jumps&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-247","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-covid-financial-behavior","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>COVID-19 increased personal spending?  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