{"id":292,"date":"2020-06-26T21:43:30","date_gmt":"2020-06-26T21:43:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/market-wisdom.com\/?p=292"},"modified":"2020-09-25T23:20:03","modified_gmt":"2020-09-25T23:20:03","slug":"covid-spending-rebounds-stretching-to-normalcy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/market-wisdom.com\/index.php\/2020\/06\/26\/covid-spending-rebounds-stretching-to-normalcy\/","title":{"rendered":"COVID spending rebounds:  stretching to normalcy?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/specials-images.forbesimg.com\/imageserve\/1219427525\/960x0.jpg?w=840&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"COVID spending rebounds as consumers head out\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Background<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Personal spending has been hammered since the pandemic lockdowns started in March.\u00a0\u00a0As states are starting to reopen, the May\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bea.gov\/data\/consumer-spending\/main\">Bureau of Economic Analysis data<\/a>\u00a0showed that consumer spending climbed 8% from April, and is now approaching 90% of the February level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What sectors of the economy are recovering?&nbsp;&nbsp;Past posts have examined the categories where&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/market-wisdom.com\/index.php\/2020\/06\/12\/some-covid-spending-holds-up-what-we-buy-during-lockdown\/\">spending held up<\/a>&nbsp;\u2013 food, alcohol, housing, prescription drugs, in-home entertainment.&nbsp;&nbsp;Similarly, some categories continue to&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/market-wisdom.com\/index.php\/2020\/06\/02\/covid-triples-the-savings-rate-in-april-raining-money-and-locking-wallets\/\">suffer dramatically<\/a>&nbsp;\u2013 no one is getting on a plane or in a hotel room.&nbsp;&nbsp;But there are sectors that are starting to show resilience and indicate the consumer mindset that is driving COVID spending rebounds..&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Findings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/market-wisdom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/Slide1.png?resize=757%2C540&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-293\" width=\"757\" height=\"540\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/market-wisdom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/Slide1.png?resize=1024%2C731&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/market-wisdom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/Slide1.png?resize=300%2C214&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/market-wisdom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/Slide1.png?resize=768%2C548&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/market-wisdom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/Slide1.png?resize=1200%2C857&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/market-wisdom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/Slide1.png?w=1500&amp;ssl=1 1500w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 984px) 61vw, (max-width: 1362px) 45vw, 600px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>Doctors no longer pariahs?\u00a0<\/strong>The biggest category that\u2019s rebounding is health care.\u00a0\u00a0Spending was down 40% by April as people were either afraid to seek non-emergency care, or weren\u2019t allowed to.\u00a0\u00a0It\u2019s recovered over a third of the decline.  Still it&#8217;s lagging.  And maybe it&#8217;s an excuse, but almost no one is going to their dentist.<\/li><li><strong>Make my house nicer:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>Spending on household furniture and furnishings is back at pre-pandemic levels.<\/li><li><strong>But\u2026get me out of the house!\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>Spending rebounded for cars and for recreational items, with the biggest recreational category increase \u201cdriven\u201d by RVs.<\/li><li><strong>I want to go to the mall?\u00a0<\/strong>\u00a0Jumps in clothing purchases and eating out haven\u2019t returned those categories to anywhere near their pre-pandemic levels, but  still show that many people have been itching to get out to eat and shop.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Implications<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There are three offsetting implications.\u00a0\u00a0The first is around spending:\u00a0\u00a0it\u2019s hard to keep Americans from parting with their money.\u00a0\u00a0The stimulus checks actually sent income jumping up in April, and in May people started their COVID spending rebounds.\u00a0\u00a0It appears that we were willing to hold off on shopping for a couple months, but now are ready to go to the mall.\u00a0\u00a0We are a social species and we don\u2019t like being cooped up.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The second issue is the resurgence of virus cases.&nbsp;&nbsp;On the heels of our going out again, more people are sick.&nbsp;&nbsp;Governors are closing bars and stepping back from their reopening plans.&nbsp;&nbsp;We will likely see a spending uptick in June data, but the summer months may see a spending pullback as people fear getting sick, stimulus checks run out, and establishments face more restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Finally, what does this say about our ability to save?\u00a0\u00a0Probably the best thing Americans can do from a personal perspective is to save as much as they can.\u00a0\u00a0We\u2019ve never been good at this.\u00a0\u00a0In May, income fell 4% as stimulus payments tapered off.\u00a0\u00a0Spending rose.\u00a0\u00a0Therefore, the savings rate is coming back down.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0While consumer spending is good for the economy, it\u2019s not good for individuals who don\u2019t have savings.\u00a0\u00a0How do we encourage people to keep preparing for retirement when the message from governments is to get out and spend?  Future posts will address this need.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em><a href=\"https:\/\/market-wisdom.com\/index.php\/sign-up-for-cool-weekly-insights\/\">Sign up for the weekly insights email!<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The small print<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The data is from the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis\u2019\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bea.gov\/news\/2020\/personal-income-and-outlays-april-2020\">Personal Income and Outlays report<\/a>.\u00a0\u00a0Because it comes out about a month after the end of a period, we don\u2019t know what happened in the past 30 days.\u00a0\u00a0All the data is reported annualized \u2013 e.g. the May numbers reported are 12x the actuals observed because the BEA always annualizes for comparison purposes.\u00a0\u00a0The recreational category includes computer and software purchases, which were also up in May.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Background Personal spending has been hammered since the pandemic lockdowns started in March.\u00a0\u00a0As states are starting to reopen, the May\u00a0Bureau of Economic Analysis data\u00a0showed that consumer spending climbed 8% from April, and is now approaching 90% of the February level. What sectors of the economy are recovering?&nbsp;&nbsp;Past posts have examined the categories where&nbsp;spending held up&nbsp;\u2013 &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/market-wisdom.com\/index.php\/2020\/06\/26\/covid-spending-rebounds-stretching-to-normalcy\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;COVID spending rebounds:  stretching to normalcy?&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-292","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-covid-financial-behavior","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>COVID spending rebounds: stretching to normalcy?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Consumer spending rose in May as states started to reopen. 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