{"id":382,"date":"2021-02-19T20:50:32","date_gmt":"2021-02-19T20:50:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/market-wisdom.com\/?p=382"},"modified":"2021-02-23T03:44:44","modified_gmt":"2021-02-23T03:44:44","slug":"covid-spending-telegraphs-evolving-fears","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/market-wisdom.com\/index.php\/2021\/02\/19\/covid-spending-telegraphs-evolving-fears\/","title":{"rendered":"COVID spending telegraphs evolving fears"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Background<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We\u2019ve already seen obvious spending changes during COVID \u2013 like&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/market-wisdom.com\/index.php\/2020\/12\/16\/numbing-the-pandemic-sin-spending-rises\/\">more sin  purchases<\/a>&nbsp;and home office expenses.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Looking at full year 2020 data also shows that COVID spending telegraphs evolving fears.&nbsp;&nbsp;A year into the pandemic, spending behavior has settled into a long-run trend.&nbsp;&nbsp;What does this tell us about what we fear?&nbsp;&nbsp;This analysis looks at how spending has changed from December 2019.&nbsp;&nbsp;Comparisons are to the nadir of spending in April 2020, and to the most recent data from December 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"840\" height=\"600\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/market-wisdom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/COVID-fear-spending.png?resize=840%2C600&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-383\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/market-wisdom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/COVID-fear-spending.png?resize=1024%2C732&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/market-wisdom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/COVID-fear-spending.png?resize=300%2C214&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/market-wisdom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/COVID-fear-spending.png?resize=768%2C549&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/market-wisdom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/COVID-fear-spending.png?w=1100&amp;ssl=1 1100w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 1362px) 62vw, 840px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Findings&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>Fear of dying from something besides COVID:&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/strong>Spending on health care initially tanked, down by a third, as people were unwilling or unable to get medical care.&nbsp;&nbsp;But by December health spending was almost back to normal.&nbsp;&nbsp;Presumably we all heard the messages that we could have all kinds of health problems if we neglect our care.&nbsp;&nbsp;In addition, we were bombarded by messages from health care providers outlining all their safety measures.<\/li><li><strong>Fear of dying without providing for others:&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/strong>Spending on life insurance was up 7% year over year, as firms saw a&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2020\/10\/14\/life-insurance-sales-increase-due-to-coronavirus-pandemic.html\">double digit percent increase<\/a>&nbsp;in policies written,&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.strategicbusinessinsights.com\/cfd\/minipresentations\/2020-04-life-insurance.shtml\">reversing a two-decade decline<\/a>.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/li><li><strong>Fear of dentists:&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/strong>Spending on dental care plummeted by 2\/3 in April, when your dentist probably wasn\u2019t even open.&nbsp;&nbsp;By year end, when you might expect above normal business as people finally went back to their dentist, spending was sill 15% below a year ago.&nbsp;&nbsp;This analysis will avoid psychological analysis regarding if people use COVID as an excuse to avoid one of their least favorite things.<\/li><li><strong>Fear of flying \u2013&nbsp;<\/strong>Commercial airline spending is still down by half vs. a year ago.&nbsp;&nbsp;Despite massive efforts by the industry to encourage travelers to return, both the airline and hotel industry remain hugely depressed.<\/li><li><strong>Fear of cooking&nbsp;\u2013 <\/strong>Fast food restaurant meals are almost back to pre-pandemic spending.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Implications<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While the parallel increase in both health care spending and fast food spending may seem counterproductive, it\u2019s not unexpected.&nbsp;&nbsp;We are trying to return to life as normal \u2013 or as normal as we feel safe living it.&nbsp;&nbsp;That means seeing your doctor again.&nbsp;&nbsp;It also means being tired of cooking (who really wanted to prepare dinner every night?).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ultimately, this data suggests what previous posts have pointed to:\u00a0\u00a0we are defining a new version of \u201csafety\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0We apparently see as low-risk (for virus transmission) things like visiting doctors, and McDonalds, but we don\u2019t believe that travel is safe.\u00a0\u00a0The panic buying of life insurance may be a brief jump.\u00a0\u00a0However, it may also suggest to financial advisors that this is a good time to have an insurance discussion while people are more open than ever to the idea.  Ultimately, COVID spending telegraphs evolving fears.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em><a href=\"https:\/\/market-wisdom.com\/index.php\/sign-up-for-cool-weekly-insights\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Sign up for the weekly insights email!<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The small print<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The spending data comes from the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/apps.bea.gov\/iTable\/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=2#reqid=19&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;1921=underlying\">BEA<\/a>.&nbsp;&nbsp;The spending increases are not adjusted for inflation, though inflation was very low during the last year so this doesn\u2019t change the conclusions.&nbsp;&nbsp;\u201cFast food\u201d is what the BEA defines as \u201climited service\u201d restaurants, where you don\u2019t sit down and get table service.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Background We\u2019ve already seen obvious spending changes during COVID \u2013 like&nbsp;more sin purchases&nbsp;and home office expenses.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Looking at full year 2020 data also shows that COVID spending telegraphs evolving fears.&nbsp;&nbsp;A year into the pandemic, spending behavior has settled into a long-run trend.&nbsp;&nbsp;What does this tell us about what we fear?&nbsp;&nbsp;This analysis looks at how spending has &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/market-wisdom.com\/index.php\/2021\/02\/19\/covid-spending-telegraphs-evolving-fears\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;COVID spending telegraphs evolving fears&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-382","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-covid-financial-behavior","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>COVID spending telegraphs evolving fears<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Full year 2020 data shows that COVID spending telegraphs evolving fears. 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