{"id":402,"date":"2021-08-28T18:37:48","date_gmt":"2021-08-28T18:37:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/market-wisdom.com\/?p=402"},"modified":"2021-09-03T17:06:44","modified_gmt":"2021-09-03T17:06:44","slug":"record-spending-is-cocooning","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/market-wisdom.com\/index.php\/2021\/08\/28\/record-spending-is-cocooning\/","title":{"rendered":"Record spending is cocooning"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Background<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Consumer spending in the United States set another&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bea.gov\/data\/consumer-spending\/main\">record high<\/a>&nbsp;in July of 2021.&nbsp;&nbsp;We already&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/market-wisdom.com\/index.php\/2021\/08\/10\/spending-like-its-2019\/\">saw in June<\/a>&nbsp;that this was happening as a follow-on to recent stimulus payments.&nbsp;&nbsp;It appears that the massive government stimulus is driving the desired (by government) growth in consumer spending.&nbsp;&nbsp;But where is this spending coming from?&nbsp;&nbsp;Is it all about summer vacations finally coming back, or is it something else?&nbsp;&nbsp;This analysis compares spending in July 2021 with a baseline of July 2019 \u2013 the last \u201cnormal\u201d summer when spending wasn\u2019t influenced by COVID or stimulus payments.&nbsp;&nbsp;Note that the BEA data is reported as annualized data, so the numbers here are the annualized July data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Findings&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/market-wisdom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Jul-21-BEA-spend-largest-growth-1.png?resize=818%2C584&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-407\" width=\"818\" height=\"584\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/market-wisdom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Jul-21-BEA-spend-largest-growth-1.png?resize=1024%2C732&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/market-wisdom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Jul-21-BEA-spend-largest-growth-1.png?resize=300%2C214&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/market-wisdom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Jul-21-BEA-spend-largest-growth-1.png?resize=768%2C549&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/market-wisdom.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Jul-21-BEA-spend-largest-growth-1.png?w=1100&amp;ssl=1 1100w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 984px) 61vw, (max-width: 1362px) 45vw, 600px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>Eat up:&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/strong>Groceries (including alcohol) was the biggest increase, and the fourth biggest jump was in eating out.&nbsp;&nbsp;They\u2019re both double-digit increases and combined we\u2019re spending almost $300 billion a year more on what we eat.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;A&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.advisory.com\/en\/daily-briefing\/2021\/04\/21\/weight-gain\">Harris poll<\/a>earlier this year found that 40% of adults reported an undesired weight gain in the past year with an average jump of 29 pounds!<\/li><li><strong>Way more on our homes:&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/strong>There are two drivers here.&nbsp;&nbsp;One is home furnishings, up $97 billion.&nbsp;&nbsp;The other is what we pay for our homes \u2013 mortgages and rent \u2013 which is up $174 billion or 8%.&nbsp;&nbsp;This is driven both by rising average home purchase prices, with the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/MSPUS\">median sale price up 16%<\/a>&nbsp;in the past two years, and rental rates, which rebounded strongly in 2021 and are now at their&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsweek.com\/apartment-rent-housing-costs-soar-average-us-rental-price-surpasses-1200-1st-time-1607257\">highest level ever<\/a>.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/li><li><strong>Splurging on new cars:&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/strong>Vs. two years ago, spending is up 28% or $81 billi<strong>on.<\/strong><\/li><li><strong>Getting back to health?&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/strong>Spending on health care \u2013 doctors, hospitals, etc. \u2013 is back above its pre-pandemic levels.&nbsp;Spending on pharmaceuticals is up 10% &#8212; both prescription and over-the-counter drugs.<\/li><li><strong>Clothing is a thing again:&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/strong>Despite what seemed like a limited need to \u201cdress up\u201d when we were mostly at home, we\u2019re now building up our wardrobes to the tune of $75 billion more a year.<\/li><li><strong>It\u2019s not really going to vacations:&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/strong>Note that categories like hotels and air travel didn\u2019t even make the list of big increases.&nbsp;&nbsp;In fact, they are both still below pre-pandemic levels, though they\u2019ve recovered dramatically.&nbsp;&nbsp;We don\u2019t know though how much of this spending is business vs. personal use.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Implications<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Giving people money to spend\u2026results in spending.&nbsp;&nbsp;Perhaps not a shocking conclusion.&nbsp;&nbsp;But this spending is way more pronounced this year.&nbsp;&nbsp;Much of the 2020 stimulus payments went straight to savings as many people, especially those who were still employed, chose to put the government checks into savings.&nbsp;&nbsp;Now we\u2019re seeing what appears to be a COVID rebound in spending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But it\u2019s not as much about summer vacations as it is about summer \u201cstay-cations\u201d.&nbsp;&nbsp;Record spending is cocooning.  We\u2019re putting most of that money into both eating and housing.&nbsp;&nbsp;A lot of money.&nbsp;&nbsp;So not only is there a housing bubble, there\u2019s an eating bubble.&nbsp;&nbsp;As stimulus payments taper, can this continue?&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As discussed in the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/market-wisdom.com\/index.php\/2021\/08\/10\/spending-like-its-2019\/\">previous post<\/a>, the decline in the savings rate may put Americans\u2019 goal of a comfortable retirement at risk.\u00a0\u00a0Government largess \u2013 especially to those who may have less need of it \u2013 encourages a spending mentality.\u00a0\u00a0While this is the government\u2019s goal, to juice the economy in the near term, it doesn\u2019t encourage long-term financial success.\u00a0\u00a0Financial advisors and financial services firms have an opportunity to reinforce with their clients the long-term approach of saving and investing.\u00a0\u00a0What better time than when they have extra money in their pockets?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em><a href=\"https:\/\/market-wisdom.com\/index.php\/sign-up-for-cool-weekly-insights\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Sign up for the weekly insights email!<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The small print<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This data comes from the monthly&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bea.gov\/data\/consumer-spending\/main\">Bureau of Economic Analysis release<\/a>.&nbsp;&nbsp;They do seasonal adjustments and then annualize the data so what is reported here is essentially July times twelve.&nbsp;&nbsp;I\u2019ve used the numbers that are not adjusted for inflation.&nbsp;&nbsp;Given the very low inflation rate and the big trends we\u2019re seeing, this won\u2019t impact any of the conclusions.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Background Consumer spending in the United States set another&nbsp;record high&nbsp;in July of 2021.&nbsp;&nbsp;We already&nbsp;saw in June&nbsp;that this was happening as a follow-on to recent stimulus payments.&nbsp;&nbsp;It appears that the massive government stimulus is driving the desired (by government) growth in consumer spending.&nbsp;&nbsp;But where is this spending coming from?&nbsp;&nbsp;Is it all about summer vacations finally coming &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/market-wisdom.com\/index.php\/2021\/08\/28\/record-spending-is-cocooning\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Record spending is cocooning&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-402","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-covid-financial-behavior","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Record spending is cocooning : Winning with the financial services consumer<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, 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